Everyone looks at reality from "inside the box." That is what the hot shot motivational lecturers are paid big bucks to tell us. People think conventionally, they extend past experiences to the future, the generals fight the last war. The conventional thinking is that Pat Buchanan's third presidential bid is silly, one columnist comparing him to quixotic Harold Stassen.

Conventional wisdom on the year 2000 presidential race ballyhoos Texas Governor George Bush as the runaway choice. Naturally, Vice President Al Gore will win the Democratic nomination, according to the Voter News Service election day poll with 63% of his party's vote. George Bush will get 57% among Republicans. Bill Clinton has shamed his party with his innumerable scandals and guaranteed that the GOP presidential candidate will win, and pull through marginal Congressional candidates for the Republicans to retain control of the legislative branch too. So, Governor Bush will win 52% to 38% for Mr. Gore. That is what the polls show in a two man race. Slam dunk; that is that.

But reality is messier. Elizabeth Dole shows a bit of leg that she will enter the presidential race and immediately the Governor's margin is cut in half, or more, depending upon the survey. Her candidacy is accepted by the media as viable and, because she has not held public office, this makes Steve Forbes' already surging candidacy stronger. Senator John McCain's support for campaign finance reform and tobacco restrictions places him as the media's favorite GOP candidate, an advantage difficult to dismiss. The new front-loading of primaries in early March requires early money ($50 million or more) pushing those who can raise it, like Bush, Forbes and (perhaps) Dan Quayle forward, while it also makes it less likely any candidate will win outright. That brings even Lamar Alexander and Gary Bauer to the table with some chips.

But no one changes the dynamics of the race like Pat Buchanan. The polls all show he has lost much of his appeal among Republicans, but many did not think he would run again and his fiery personality has the potential to re-ignite the flame. His America First appeal seems less attractive in the middle of prosperity, but some people are clearly suffering from open trading borders (the only question is whether many more would be without them). The world economic crisis has scared many that it could pull down the United States and the easy-target International Monetary Fund has proved inadequate to stop it. Recent large waves of immigration have caused dislocations and resentments. Especially, the commitment of American troops to Bosnia was done against public opinion and the threatened action in Kosovo just might give the necessary spark.

Interestingly, none of his issues is as important to the Republican primary electorate as it is to segments of Democratic and Independent constituencies. One reason Mr. Buchanan did so well in New Hampshire was that Independents could vote in the GOP primary. No, the real impact of a Buchanan campaign is the threat he will run as a third party candidate. That could change everything. It could even provoke Jesse Jackson to be a fourth candidate. Pat Buchanan almost ran independently in 1996. He certainly must have marveled at the fact Ross Perot was beating both George Bush senior and Bill Clinton in 1992 before he withdrew (temporarily) because of a bizarre belief some GOP politicians were threatening him. This time, he must have noticed that the former wrestler, Jesse Ventura, defeated both the son of Hubert Humphrey and a very attractive Republican mayor for Minnesota governor. He must be thinking, why could this not happen for president?

Dividing the electorate into its party and ideological components reveals the possibilities. Liberal Democrats represent 11% of the voting population and liberal Independents 5%, or a total possible leftist Jackson constituency of 16%. Moderate Democrats, the presumed Clinton-Gore base, represent 18% and Democratic-leaning moderate Independents equal 7%, a total of 25%. Moderate Republicans are 14%, GOP-leaning moderate Independents are 7% and liberal Republicans are 3%, or a total Bush base vote of 24%. Conservative Republicans represent 17% of the electorate, conservative Independents are 8%, and conservative Democrats equal 7%, a potential conservative base for Mr. Buchanan of 32%, the largest block of the four. Of course, it is not that simple but thinking he could win in a multi-candidate race is not an insane idea.

There are significant obstacles. Much of the conservative base supports free trade, does not care about immigration, and is antagonistic to Buchanan's heated, blue collar-union rhetoric. He would have to unify them on a defining issue like Kosovo. He also requires a moderate-appearing Republican like George Bush or Elizabeth Dole as nominee--not a Steve Forbes or Dan Quayle--so the GOP candidate does not have an equal reach into his own base. But as long as the Republicans do not nominate a candidate that is unambiguously conservative--not a hyphenated one--Mr. Buchanan might just be able to pull it off. If a moderate-appearing candidate is nominated, that is his signal to bolt the party.

The Republican, as opposed to conservative, strategy is clear. On a strictly pragmatic basis, the GOP can only be guaranteed to benefit (quietly) from the Clinton scandals if it nominates an unambiguous conservative who can keep most of Mr. Buchanan's base. The party also must not give him any excuse to desert. Rather than the Republican Party chairman trying to enforce a so-called 11th Commandment of no candidate speaking ill of any other (which protects frontrunners), Jim Nicholson and other party officials must be willing to let Pat Buchanan have his say--even if it does not fit Marquis of Queensberry rules. Nothing would be more damaging to their party than pushing him into bolting, and nothing would be worse for their vision for the country than if that caused Mr. Gore to become the next president.

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Donald Devine, former director Of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, is a columnist and a Washington-based policy consultant and a Vice Chairman for the American Conservative Union.