All
of the political “experts” are surprised that Al Gore has now surged
to the lead in the polls after one mediocre convention speech, especially
the Republicans who thought they were 16 points ahead the week before.
What’s happening?
George W. Bush’s lead the week before ranged from 3 percentage points
ahead (NBC / Wall Street Journal, Zogby) to 5 (Fox), 7 (McLoughlin),
8 (ABC / The Washington Post), 9 (Democracy Corps), 10 (Newsweek), to
16 points (CNN / USA Today / Gallup). As the Washington Post’s polling
director, Richard Morin, conceded, many pollsters are “cutting corners
and taking unprecedented risks” to satisfy the appetite for instant
news. “Tiny” samples that produce large sampling error margins, over-compressed
polling periods, and unrepresentative samples are the rule. A Gallup
one-nighter showed Mr. Bush up by only 2 point but had 6 percent too
many Democrats. But the problem is more fundamental.
Many years teaching and researching public opinion at the University
of Maryland confirm that such volatility means people have not simply
arrived at a firm opinion. Studies show respondents will give an answer
to a question even if they have no factual information about it or have
never thought about it before. Something similar is happening now. People
kind of know about an election this year but, to most, it is still far
away. Party activists and primary participants are the exception, but
we know how they will vote in November. People in the middle give the
first answer that comes into theur head. Mostly, this type of unformed
opinion is simply regurgitated from the last media message.
What is unprecedented is that the Republican Mr. Bush has been getting
very positive coverage from the media. S. Robert Lichter, head of a
study conducted by his Center for Media and Public Affairs, told the
AP that, “For the first time in memory, the GOP presidential nominee
is clearly beating the Democrat in the race for good press.” During
1999, Mr. Bush received an incredible 71 percent positive coverage on
the ABC, CBS, and NBC evening news, compared to only 46 percent for
Al Gore. During the primaries through March 7, it was 53 percent favorable
for Mr. Bush to 40 for Mr. Gore. The Republican Convention was good
news too. The bad news is that this cannot last.
The first crack was unequal coverage of the two conventions. C-SPAN
studies the coverage of PBS, CNN, FNC, MSNBC, ABC, CBS and NBC and found,
not counting its own full coverage of both conventions, the Democratic
Convention received about two more hours of invaluable TV time. There
was a clear tonal change by the media after the vice president’s selection
of Sen. Joseph Lieberman as his running mate. Whatever else may be said
of it, it was a big hit with the media and made it OK to swallow Al
Gore. Not only was Mr. Lieberman liberal enough (he had a lifetime American
Conservative Union rating of merely 16 percent) but he sort of absolved
the media from Bill Clinton’s seaminess. Mr. Bush’s free ride is now
over.
It is a strange race, anyway. Mr. Gore is clearly the conservative –
in the worst sense of the word. He labels every suggested change as
“risky.” He does not want to change education – stay away from risky
vouchers; does not want to change Medicare – forget about risky options
like medical savings accounts; and he really does not want to change
Social Security – no risky personal savings retirement accounts – even
though it will explode soon when the Baby Boomers retire.
Gov. Bush is the reformer. As George F. Will put on it, “some of the
radicalism of the later 1960s, much gentrified, has found expression
in George W. Bush’s campaign. Sixties’ radicalism was distinguished
from earlier left-wingery by its preoccupation with ameliorating society’s
spiritual woes.” This is what his compassionate conservatism and faith-based
solutions are all about. He uses the “strong state” but it is the tax
codes and incentives rather than bureaucracy.
In any event, the race will be close. Pat Buchanan will be on the ballot
too and, contrary to wishful thinking, he will get 2 or 3 percent, which
could be the difference, to say nothing about Ralph Nader. Mr. Bush
cannot coast to victory. He must emphasize that 8 million more people
lack health coverage than when the Clinton-Gore administration began.
Educational skills have fallen further behind. The culture is breaking.
Social Security and Medicare are ready to implode. Taxes are at an all-time
high. And he needs to appeal to the Buchanan voters who are upset with
the rash foreign policy engagements of the Clinton-Gore years. To win,
Mr. Bush must engage. The polls will always lag the action and those
who await the results usually lose.
Donald
Devine, former director Of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management,
is a columnist and a Washington-based policy consultant and a Vice Chairman
for the American Conservative Union.
