Donald J. Devine

To: CONSERVATIVE AND REPUBLICAN LEADERS
March 21, 2000

1. Conservatism Dead? From the nation's most public conservative commentator to the country's premier research organization, all agree that modern conservatism is dead. Bill Kristol cites the success of John McCain and the failure of the true conservatives in the Republican nomination contest as the proof. The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press gives the poll evidence, which was summarized by David Broder 's article in the Washington Post, headlined "Despite Bush's Popularity, GOP is Divided and in Decline." And George W. Bush's popularity has since dipped! Is everything Ronald Reagan and the movement achieved now just history?

2. A Divided Conservatism? Interpreting the Pew data as saying the GOP is divided simply misunderstands its methodology. It is called "factor analysis," which as a former professor who taught it can attest, forces groups to differ. Moreover, politics is about coalitions because no one group is big enough. They must combine to win. The modern conservative movement always has been a coalition of entrepreneurial free marketers, social conservatives and establishment status-quo'ers. There are some philosophical "fusionists" who proclaim both social and economic conservatism but the major commonality has been that they all agree that liberals--in their various group guises--are worse than their potential allies. That essential fact has not changed.

3. What the Pew Data Really Show About Conservatism. Combined, economic conservatives, social conservatives and "moderate" Republicans represent 32 percent of voters and the overwhelming majority of the GOP nomination electorate. The term "moderate" is misleading since Pew says they are pro-business, highly religious and conservative on social issues--not normally what one considers a country club Republican. Mainly, they are more pro-government than strong conservatives (or independents). The reason is that they are highly patriotic. Pew’s former title for this group was "upbeats," which better defines them. They are positive about everything, even government--think Jack Kemp--but they are generally conservative on policy (except on the environment). These conservative groups are not agreed on issues but they usually vote together and probably will in November if none are alienated by the presidential campaign.

4. The Dynamics of the Election. All the Republicans need is to keep these groups together and add the Pew "new prosperity" and "disaffected' independents. That would give them 53 percent of the vote and victory. Of course, the groups are not fully cohesive (one of the problems with the methodology) so it is not that simple--but it is close enough. The prosperity independents are positive like the upbeats but are less religious and more affluent , well-educated and young. They are big on education and want their prosperity to continue. Bob Dole split the vote with Bill Clinton and Ross Perot received 16 percent. They tend GOP. The disaffected did not like Dole but they are estranged from both parties and distrustful of all government and politicians. They dislike immigrants and homosexuals. They smoke and are less affluent. The only things they like are Social Security and health care. They will go to the perceived outsider. They dislike incumbents, not exactly bad news for Mr. Bush, but both groups are open to third parties.

5. The Kristol Third Way. Kristol is concise about his alternative view: "the conservative movement, which accomplished great things over the past quarter-century, is finished." The good news is, so are the GOP establishment and the Democrats. All were repudiated in the New Hampshire primary by John McCain, with a big win and a large mobilization of independent voters. The proof was the poor showing of the conservative candidates, Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer. This is his opportunity to create a "new governing agenda for a potential new political majority." When Mr. Kristol first introduced his "national greatness conservatism" alternative, he admitted it had no constituency. After Bauer failed him, McCain landed in his lap with his new majority. Only, it was an illusion. The McCain base turned out to be, in the words of his top consultant, “the media.” A Rasmussen poll last September predicted it all. When asked who would win--a candidate who raised more money or one liked by the media--63 percent said the one liked by the media. The people are not stupid. McCain's major contribution at the end turned out to be the consolidation of the Republican base behind establishmentarian Bush. A March Harvard poll found McCain in third place with 14%, behind Al Gore with 32% and Mr. Bush with 37%. The Kristol majority could only muster one-sixth of the electorate. Good try.

6. Why Did the Conservatives Not Do Better? The simple answer is that too many wanted a “winner” and did not want to take chances with someone new. Governor Bush then used all of the resources of the establishment to raise more money than anyone thought possible. Even Mr. Forbes could not keep up. And, truth be told, the old conservative formula had gone flat. President Clinton stole most of its rhetoric and it all sounded as insubstantial as he. The polls proved the ideas were still popular but no one could tell who was serious and who not. So, personality became critical and Mr. McCain's bio was the winner--until he began running against the GOP and Mr. Bush showed backbone. Then the conservatives ended the outsider's campaign.

7.How To Reconstruct the Conservative Majority. Quoting Reagan speeches will not do it. He contrived a rhetoric for his times but the times have changed and we have to become as wise. The strategy should be: (1) Hold the economic conservatives with a sound program of lower, simpler taxes, deregulation and decentralization of domestic policy. (2) Satisfy the upbeats with a good tax cut. While the rest of the population may not have taxes as their first priority, they want to lower them. (3) Keep the social conservatives by supporting the platform values program. Even abortion has turned from being a negative politically. A March Newsweek poll found that the population now splits 48 to 48 percent between a candidate who is pro-life and one who is pro-choice. (4) How about the independents? Bill Clinton really sticks in the disaffecteds’ craw. All that is necessary is to remind them whom Al Gore thought was the greatest president and then confront the Democrats on Social Security and health care. Steve Forbes had the right message and if Mr. Bush confronts these issues directly, rather than do the usual and hope they go away, he will earn the votes of most of this group. (5) Mr. Forbes had the right solution for the prosperity independents too, on their issue of education--vouchers. Use the fact that a Florida judge overturned his brother's program to make the case why the federal government must at least remove the barriers to state action. The Newsweek poll found a pro-voucher candidate would be preferred over one who thought vouchers would ruin public education, 54 to 40%.

8. New, Positive Wedge Issues. The clever thing about a low tax, deregulation, decentralization, pro-traditional values, Social Security, health care and educational vouchers agenda, is that Democrats must oppose it. Their base depends upon the national government and cannot support real reform or lower taxes. Any change in Social Security or health care cannot even be conceived by minds incapable of a post-1930s idea. The unions can only survive with the current laws biased in their favor. The radical feminists cannot allow any deviation from abortion on demand. The teachers unions cannot allow school reform no matter how much the children suffer. The Democrats are trapped by their base if the GOP candidate is courageous enough to challenge it on issues from which they cannot retreat. And the public is on the conservative side.

9. There Is More To Do. Winning an election is not the same as building a movement. Conservative leaders are getting long in the tooth. Young people do not understand what are the essentials that made the movement successful. The number one challenge is to teach the next generation. Lobbying and shaping policy are fine and should continue. But if the movement does not turn to education, the present leaders will look behind and find no one there who understands. Time is running out. Unless the conservative philosophy is passed on, Mr. Kristol will be correct, even if for the wrong reasons. If “finished,” the movement will only have itself to blame.