Donald J. Devine

Conservatism Scores Plummet in 2004 As Bush Moves Republican Party and Congress to Middle; Budget and Entitlement Spending Explode

The vice chairman's assessment

As President George W. Bush consolidated his power over the Republican majorities in both houses, voting in Congress has changed more dramatically than any time since the American Conservative Union has been measuring the legislative process in America. The ratings for 2003 show a dramatic lowering of the conservatism scores for Republican members of Congress and the liberalism scores of Democrats declined too. The overall result has been a strong shift in Congressional voting to the middle, presumably where the president wants to be politically facing an election this year. But the cost has been a rapid increase in government spending and a decline in conservative voting generally.

Over the preceding eight years, the ACU ratings have revealed a conjunction between party and ideology we assumed would be the dominant pattern for the foreseeable future. The razor-thin majorities both parties have enjoyed in either house have pushed each towards greater ideological cohesion. To some extent, the ideological divide is an artifact of the manner in which Congressional leadership decides which votes may be held. Even so, this system has broken down in this past Congress and driven more Senators and Representatives to the middle. The partisan-ideological link is still evident but the numbers falling in the more ideological ranges has dropped dramatically. Since the membership has changed so little over this period, the most likely explanation is that the immanence of the 2004 elections has triggered the shift toward the middle of the political spectrum.

The pattern is best illustrated in comparing the House ratings in this and the preceding years. In 2002, 60 House members scored a perfect 100% conservative rating (compared to 37 the previous year and 28 the year before), while only two had perfect scores in 2003, Mike Pence (IN) and Zack Wamp (TN). An additional 46 scored a near-perfect 96 in 2002, while only eight did so in 2003, Steve Chabot (OH), John Culberson (TX), Tom Feeney (FL), Scott Garrett (NJ), Marilyn Musgrave (CO), John Shadegg (AZ), Jim DeMint (SC), and Jim Ryun (KS). Overall, the House produced 169 members with an ACU rating of over 80 percent—our definition of a conservative-compared to last year when there were 198 conservative members. This year, no Democrat rated conservative. At the other end of the spectrum, only 115 members rated a liberal rating of 20 or less, all of whom were Democratic, compared to 161 members last year. Consequently, the vast majority of members fell in the moderate middle last year.

A similar but less dramatic pattern appears in the Senate. Whereas 19 Republicans received a perfect 100% conservative rating in 1992, none did so in 2003. Chuck Hagel (NE) and Don Nickles (OK) led the list with 95% and John Ensign (NV) had a 94%, the only Senators over 90%. Only 30 Senators scored 80% conservative or above, compared to 42 the preceding year-and, for the first time in years, one was a Democrat, Zell Miller (GA). These conservatives were exactly balanced by 30 liberal Senators who scored 20% or below, compared to 38 last year, and all were Democrats. No Senators received a perfect liberal rating of zero but fourteen scored below a very liberal 11%, including Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein (CA), Hillary Clinton (NY), Teddy Kennedy (MA), Joe Lieberman (CN), and Democratic leader Thomas Daschle (SD).

As a result of this rush to the mushy middle, non-defense discretionary spending increased by nine percent, almost one-third higher than the average for the Bill Clinton years and a new entitlement obligating $7 trillion in unfunded liability was adopted. While defense was upgraded marginally and there were some impressive social conservative victories, such as passing a partial birth abortion bill, liberal spending on health, welfare and education exploded. Overall, 1993 was not a good year in Congress for limited government conservatives.

Donald Devine is a vice chairman of the American Conservative Union.