Donald J. Devine

October 12, 2005

Republican Meltdown?

All of a sudden, the media are awash in conservative concerns that Republicans are in meltdown. It is not Tom DeLay’s double indictment in Texas or even the nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court. They are secondary to a growing concern the GOP has abandoned the ideals that brought it to power under Ronald Reagan.

Democrats are ecstatic over the legal problems that have forced former House Majority Leader DeLay to vacate his position at least temporarily in the face of enormous media and public pressure. Campaign ads against corruption and for good government already dance in Democrat heads, mirroring and paying back for what Newt Gingrich supposedly did in 1994 when he exposed the sins of House Speaker Jim Wright and brought the GOP to a majority for the first time in forty years. But the DeLay indictment smells. The real problems are not legal since every Democratic leader in the country has been involved in similar money transfers between national and state parties. If it is illegal, DeLay will have much company in the slammer from the same pols who are now so enjoying themselves.

The real indicator of the Reagan coalition shipwreck did feature DeLay but actually came earlier when he had been approached by Rep. Mike Pence, the head of the Republican Study Committee--the conservative House caucus—for help with their plan to offset Katrina relief costs with lower spending on less essential programs. DeLay responded that spending had already been cut “pretty good [so much that] I am ready to declare ongoing victory,” when non-defense, non-security spending actually shot up to a modern high of 31 percent during the Bush presidency. DeLay even claimed that the new Medicare prescription drug benefit “would implement fiscal restraint” in the program, while its official Trustees estimate a long term net red ink of $16 trillion. Moreover, he threatened Pence and others if they tried to cut the bloated highway spending bill and its 6,000 pork-barrel earmarks or to delay implementation of the hyper-expensive drug bill.

But GOP problems started before and go far beyond DeLay. President George W. Bush dropped to his lowest level of public support as early as August, when 53 percent disapproved of his performance, long before the inept Federal response to Katrina. By the end of September, two-thirds of Independents (joining almost all Democrats) opposed the way the president was handling his job but, more ominously, only 78 percent of Republicans were supporting him, down from 90 percent. Parties typically lose seats in Congressional elections in the sixth year of a presidency anyway but in addition only one-third of the electorate thought Congress was doing a good job, 57 percent disapproved of the president’s performance in Iraq, and only 32 percent saw the country as a whole headed in the right direction.

Republican leaders take comfort that House districts have been so well gerrymandered that their majority cannot be threatened. Yet, we have heard this before, from the Democrats in 1994, who were no slouches in creating safe seats. If the president’s standing in the polls remains low, if DeLay’s status continues in legal limbo through the 2006 election, and if even Majority Leader Frist’s almost certainly legitimate sale of stock at a substantial profit sticks in public memory —people are suspicious of politicians who make big bucks—right or wrong, the public might just smell corruption. Cronyism charges against the president’s nomination of his friend Miers to the nation’s top court do not help and it will be Katy-bar-the-door if his deputy chief of staff Karl Rove, who is testifying for an unprecedented fourth time in the CIA leak probe, is indicted.

GOP strategists respond that scandal is not enough, that the GOP could only win in 1994 with a program, the Contract With America, and policy differences over Hillarycare, and that the Democrats have no program. The problem is that by 2005 neither do Republicans. The president’s best media supporter, Fred Barnes, can only point to such successes as pro-business but larded with pork bills, like energy and transportation, or necessary but boring bills like bankruptcy and class action reform. If neither party has any interesting ideas and Republicans even retreat from those it has previously supported, scandal might be enough to put the “outs” in.

When historians look back on the collapse of GOP principles, the defining moment may well be September 21, 2005, in the Senate, a week before the DeLay indictment. Reformist conservative Sen. Tom Coburn introduced an amendment to “lift the veil of secrecy that conceals the process of inserting special projects—or pork—into appropriations bills.” Coburn said, “At a time our nation is at war, recovering from a terrible national disaster, and facing rising deficits, business as usual in Congress simply cannot continue. Taxpayers and members of Congress deserve to know what programs are being funded in appropriations bills.” For the awful truth of the matter was that all his amendment would do was to publish any spending earmark, limitation, or directive in the bill’s official report so members (and the public) could at least know what pork was being voting upon.

The amendment should have been a no-brainer for the party of Contract With America. The good news was that the Coburn amendment to cast a bit of sunshine on this secret spending process passed the Senate 55 to 39. The problem for the GOP was that more Republicans than Democrats opposed it, including many considered conservative. A few more Republicans supported the amendment than Democrats—the 32 with some remaining sense of propriety on spending--but it is instructive to see which members of the minority party supported this simple good government act. As a matter of record, four Democrats considered as candidates for president in 2008 stood up for fiscal responsibility and open government—John Kerry, Joseph Biden, Russ Feingold and---yes, Hillary Clinton!

Smart Democrats could figure this out—sneaking spending past the public is not good government or good politics. But the GOP Senate Leader Bill Frist could not and this no vote alone should doom his chances for president if he ever had any. Chuck Hagel opposed open votes too, so he probably is not running either. But John McCain supported the amendment and will earn points from conservatives who are wary of his Reaganite credentials. McCain has even urged his fellow Senators to support the efforts of the House Study Committee, including delaying or repealing the expensively horrific drug bill. Other anti-spending, small government stalwarts supporting the Coburn bill included John Sununu, Jim Talent, Jim DeMint, Mike Crapo, Larry Craig and Sam Brownback.

Remember 1998? After four years of relative fiscal restraint, Speaker Gingrich led the GOP to support the largest budget since before the takeover and middle class, small government conservative voters stayed home. Republicans barely retained a slim majority in both houses and soon thereafter lost their speaker. Finally recognizing the parallel, Speaker Dennis Hastert reversed himself by the end of the week and agreed not only to offset $35 to $50 billion through spending cuts but supported a rare mid-session revision to the budget to do so. House conservatives considered this a beginning but were cautious whether the leadership will make its passage a priority.

Even if the GOP survives the 2006 election, the voters will be ripe for a “time for a change” appeal in 2008, especially if Iraq is still festering and baby boom retirements begin draining fiscal resources to slow the economy. Even if cuts of the size now promised started immediately, spending would still double that under Bill Clinton. The Democrats are certainly capable of misplaying a strong hand and they might even need a few new ideas to prevail. Still, it will be fascinating to watch Hillary Clinton and her friends running to the Republican right on government spending and the GOP leadership over the past few years defending their big government policies. Poor Ronald Reagan must be turning in his grave.