Donald J. Devine

Analysis of the Ratings:
Congress Continues Dramatic Shift Left in 2008
Donald J. Devine
ACU Vice Chairman

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Harry Reid were even more effective in 2008 than last year in moving Congress dramatically further left than at any time in recent years. Both Democratic cohesion and liberal voting increased compared to the already historic levels of 2007.

For the first time since ACU ratings were initiated, 50 members of the Senate and an absolute majority of the House of Representatives scored as liberal. Even in the previously high year of 2007, liberals were short of an absolute majority in the House by six seats and by three in the Senate.

The House figures are truly historic. In 2008, 219 Members voted an ACU conservatism score of 20 or less—our definition of a liberal—an absolute majority. Last year the number was 212 liberal Congressmen and 144 in 2006. Those earning a perfect liberal score of zero totaled 94, down from 2007. Even one Republican scored as a liberal, Wayne Gilchrest (MD), who not coincidently was denied renomination in a GOP primary.  There has been a steady decline in the number of House Republicans scoring an ACU rating of 80% or higher—from 172 members as recently as 2006 to 152 members in 2007 down to a low of 147 for 2008. Those earning a perfect ACU rating of 100% dropped from 62 in 2007 to 31 this year. The highest scoring Democrat was Nick Lampson (TX) with a conservative score of 48%, who notably was defeated in the 2008 general election.

Senate voting did not change as much. In 2008, 50 Senators received an ACU liberal rating, based on an ACU score of 20% or less. This number is up from 48 in 2007 and 40 in 2006, the last year Republicans were in control. For the first time, two Republicans scored as absolutely liberal in voting, both from Maine, with Susan Collins precisely at 20% and Olympia Snowe the lowest at a mere 12% rating, lower than nine Democrats. A substantial number, 12 Democratic Senators, earned a perfect liberal zero rating, including Vice President Joseph Biden (DE). Sen. Barack Obama scored 17%, although he missed many votes due to campaigning.

Only 20 Senators scored 80% conservative or better, all Republicans, down from 34 in 2007 and 46 in 2005. Only one GOP Senator received a perfect 100% conservative rating, Sen. Jim DeMint (SC). Five earned the next highest score of 96% — John Barrasso (WY), Tom Coburn (OK), Mike Enzi (WY), Jim Inhofe (OK), and John Kyl (AZ). The highest scoring Democrats were Mary Landrieu (LA) at 32% and Evan Bayh (IN) at 29%.

In light of the 2008 election, these findings have enormous consequences for the incoming Congress. In the Senate, Leader Reid’s caucus will include at least 58 Democrats (depending on the recount in Minnesota) and with the two fully certified liberal Republicans one can safely predict he will often have the 60 votes needed to break a Republican filibuster. Speaker Pelosi with 257 Democrats will enjoy full party control, only subject to the political needs of two dozen or so Members who might court defeat if forced to vote on overly sensitive political issues.

It should be noted that the Democratic leadership continues to tighten its control over the voting process, denying amendments to individual appropriation bills, making it more difficult to obtain roll call votes on amendments to other bills. This trend is expected to continue in 2009 as the House has already changed its rules to limit minority Republican amendments even further.