ObamaCare Promises and Facts

by John Goodman
Issue 152 – March 24, 2010

“If you like the plan you are in you can keep it.”

19 million

Number of people predicted to lose their employer plan (Lewin Group)



8 to 9 million

Number of people predicted to lose their employer plan (CBO)



$11,543

Employer incentive to drop coverage for a $30,000 a year worker with family [Tax subsidy in the exchange minus tax subsidy at work minus $2,000 fine] (IRET)



8.5 million

Number of seniors and disabled people at risk of losing their Medicare Advantage plan (Medicare Chief Actuary)



3 million

Additional people who will likely lose Medicare Advantage plan benefits (Medicare Chief Actuary)



$816

Average annual benefit loss for 11 million seniors and disabled in Medicare Advantage plans (CBO)



33 million

Number of people in traditional Medicare at risk of losing access to care because of $523 billionin cuts in Medicare spending (Medicare Chief Actuary)

20%

Fraction of hospitals that would become unprofitable after Medicare spending cuts (Medicare Chief Actuary)


“There will be no tax increases for anyone who earns less than $200,000.”

73 million

Number of people who earn less than $200,000 who will see their tax bill rise (Joint Committee on Taxation)



40%

Tax rate on “Cadillac” plans (Reconciliation Summary)



2.3%

Hidden tax on wheelchairs and other medical supplies (CBO update)



$27 billion

Hidden “medicine cabinet” tax on drugs (Reconciliation Summary)



10%

Tax on tanning salons (Reconciliation Summary)



$60 billion

Hidden health insurance tax (Reconciliation Summary)



“Health insurance reform is…about creating a climate where our entrepreneurs and small businesses can succeed [and] about giving you the chance to prosper and grow.”

$100 million

Cost of ObamaCare mandates for Caterpillar, Inc. in the first year alone (Caterpillar, Inc.)



60%

Implicit marginal tax rate for workers earning as little as $25,000 (IRET)



65%

Implicit marginal tax rate for families earning as little as $50,000(IRET)



0.9%

New payroll tax on the wages of entrepreneurs and small business owners (Reconciliation Summary)



3.8%

New tax on the capital income of entrepreneurs and small business owners (Reconciliation Summary)

“The average family will save $2,500 in health care costs by the time I complete my first term as President of the United States.”

111%

Premium increase for individual insurance (AHIP)



54%

Premium increase for individual insurance (BlueCross BlueShield)



106%

Premium increase for individual insurance (Wellpoint)



$2,100

Premium increase for the average family (CBO)



“Over the past year the House and the Senate have been working on an effort to provide health insurance reform that lowers costs …

$220 billion

Rise in national health care spending over the next 10 years (Medicare ChiefActuary)

“… that guarantees access to care …”

15 million

Number of new people added to Medicaid, where care is increasingly rationed and where provider choice is increasingly restricted. (CBO)

0

Number of new doctors and nurses trained and number of new hospitals built to meet the needs of 32 million newly-insured (CBO)

” … and enhances the quality of health care for all Americans.”

24 million

Number of people who will enter a health insurance exchange where health plans will have an incentive to underprovide to the sick. (CBO/NCPA)

“This is not about big government …”

16,500

Additional IRS auditors needed to enforce the legislation (Ways and Means Minority Report)

“This legislation will protect families …”

$6,000 to $10,000

Marriage penalty if two $32,000-a-year workers say “I do.” (Ways and Means Minority Report)

“We are going to get rid of the special deals …”

$7,300

Extra exemption from the Cadillac premium tax for members of labor unions. (Ways and Means Minority Report)

“This bill will reduce the federal deficit …”

$562 billion

Increase in the deficit after removing budget gimmicks and unrealistic tax increases and budget cuts relegated to future Congresses (CBO former director)

John Goodman is President and CEO/Kellye Wright Fellow at the National Center for Policy Analysis

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